Effects of six tax measures on the size of the middle classes in Canada and Quebec

This study investigates the redistributive effect of certain tax measures on social classes in Quebec and Canada. Statistics Canada’s Social Policy Simulation Model and Database is used to simulate the effect of six measures on the size of social classes in 2018. The distribution of beneficiaries within each class and the socio-demographic characteristics of the main beneficiaries are also analyzed. 

• Child allowances play a major role in the growth of the middle class. Thanks to the Canada Child Benefit, nearly 1 million people in Canada and 300,000 in Quebec have moved from the underclass to the middle class.* The Family Allowance has a similar effect in Quebec, bringing 120,000 people into the middle class.
• Tax measures targeting low-income households also have an effect on the size of the middle class, albeit to a lesser extent. The GST/HST credit brings almost 125,000 people in Canada and almost 30,000 people in Quebec into the middle class. The effect of the solidarity tax credit in Quebec is greater, with around 120,000 people moving upwards.
• Homebuyer tax credits have a little to no effect on social class distribution. Both the federal First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit and the Quebec Home Buyers’ Tax Credit benefit mainly middle- and upper-class households, with no significant impact on the size of the middle class.
• Certain socio-economic characteristics may play a role in access to tax measures. Households with children, graduates and homeowners are often over-represented among the beneficiaries of the tax measures analyzed. On the other hand, people with no qualifications are under-represented for all the measures studied.

*Although the effect of each tax measure is analyzed individually, their actual effects are cumulative and may interact, thus influencing the size of the different social classes.

See the first research note for the project: Portrait and Evolution of the Middle Classes in Quebec and Canada

See the second research note for the project: The Middle Classes in Canada and Quebec