Portrait and Evolution of the Middle Classes in Quebec and Canada

This analysis note focuses on people in the middle class, i.e., those with an after-tax income of between 75% and 200% of the median adjusted household income. More specifically, it paints a portrait of the middle class and its evolution over the past 50 years, in Quebec and Canada.

• If market income alone was considered, the number of people belonging to the middle class would have declined over the past 50 years. Instead, government transfers and taxation have enabled the middle class to grow in Quebec, with 66.8% of the population belonging to it in 2022, compared with 63.2% in 1976. 
• Quebec stands out among Canadian provinces for the size of its middle class. 
• In Canada, where the effects of government transfers and taxation are generally lower, the size of the middle class has remained stable over the period under review (around 63%). 
• Contrary to popular belief, the disposable income of the middle class has risen sharply (+50%) since the early 2000s, even when inflation is taken into account. This phenomenon has been observed in both Quebec and Canada.
• More people per household need to work to maintain middle-class living standards. Although the number of people per household is falling, the number of people with employment income per household is rising. 
• The face of the middle class is diversifying. The couple-with-children model is no longer as predominant. More single-parent families have entered the middle class, supported by more generous family allowances. 
• The middle class is aging at the same rate as the population, but it is also making way for young people (under 35) who have improved their chances of joining it.
• Increasingly, women are taking on the role of main household breadwinner. In Quebec, 62% of households whose main breadwinner was a woman were middle-class in 2022, compared with 53% in 1976. A similar trend can be observed in Canada. 
• Immigrants today have as much chance of joining the middle class as native  Canadians. 
• The educational level of the middle class is on the rise. The proportion of people with a university degree has doubled between 2000 and 2022. 
• Every second middle-class person now lives in a major urban centre. In rural areas, a significant proportion of the population has joined the middle class.
• Home ownership remains a hallmark of the middle class. In 1976, 76% of middle-class Canadians were homeowners. By 2022, this had risen to 79.1%. 
• Among renters, the probability of being middle class has gone down. 
• While managers are over-represented among the privileged class, the professional profile of the middle class appears diversified.
• Middle-class debt levels rose sharply between 1999 and 2019. The proportion of debt to disposable income for middle-class households rose from 82% to 120% in Quebec, and from 99% to 167% in Canada.
• The tax burden on the middle class has risen slightly. In Quebec, while income tax represented 15.6% of total adjusted income for the middle class in 1976, it rose to 17.6% in 2022.

This project has been made possible by a financial contribution from Employment and Social Development Canada.